The Roberts Court and the Transformation of Constitutional Protections for Religion: A Statistical Portrait
Lee Epstein and Eric A. Posner

Supreme Court Review, 2021: 315-347 (2022)
Click here for the article
Click here for the data (posted on January 24, 2022)

Abstract
The Roberts Court has ruled in favor of religious organizations far more frequently than its predecessors—over 83% of the time, compared to about 50% for all previous eras since 1953. In most of these cases, the winning religion was a mainstream Christian organization, whereas in the past pro-religion outcomes more frequently favored minority or marginal religious organizations. A statistical analysis suggests that this transformation is largely the result of changes in the Court’s personnel: a majority of Roberts Court justices are ideologically conservative and religiously devout—a significant break from the past. We also explore other possible explanations.

keywords: Roberts Court, Supreme Court, judicial ideology, religious freedom, Establishment Clause, Free Exercise Clause, mainstream Christian organizations, constitutional law, quantitative analysis